Our Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: 3-1
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix in the Australia A-League is scheduled for an 08:35 GMT kick-off on Friday March 6, 2026. A 3-1 win for the home side is our main prediction, though over 2.5 goals looks like a valuable bet given both teams’ attacking tendencies.
Our prediction is supported by key Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix stats, including attacking and defensive strength, recent form and historical results — all detailed below.
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Recent Form Insights
Adelaide United's Last Match – Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United
Adelaide United will seek to go one better this time following a 1-1 Australia A-League share of the spoils with Melbourne Victory on February 27. In that match, Adelaide United recorded 55% possession, attempting 11 shots on goal, with 6 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Melbourne Victory | 45% | 15 (7) | 1.86 | 54 |
 Adelaide United | 55% | 11 (6) | 1.77 | 21 |
Wellington Phoenix's Last Match – Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney FC
Wellington Phoenix will look to get back on track following a 0-1 Australia A-League loss against Sydney FC on March 1. In that match, Wellington Phoenix controlled 46% of possession and managed 6 shots on goal, with 3 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wellington Phoenix | 46% | 6 (3) | 0.64 | 38 |
 Sydney FC | 54% | 8 (3) | 1.4 | 24 |
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix Stats
Key Stats
| Adelaide United | Wellington Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Attacking Strength | 1.01 |
| 0.94 | Defence Strength | 1.35 |
| 1.8 | Points Per Game | 0.9 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 2/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 1/10 | Clean Sheets | 2/10 |
| 8/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 8/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 8/10 |
| 2 | Average Scored | 1.5 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Adelaide United are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match, while Wellington Phoenix average 1.5 scored and 2.4 conceded per game.
Adelaide United 20-17
Wellington Phoenix 15-24
What are the odds for this match?
Adelaide United to win: @1.75
Draw: @4.5
Wellington Phoenix to win: @3.7
Lineups
Adelaide United (4-4-1-1) : Joshua Smits, Jay Barnett, Bart Vriends, Panagiotis Kikianis, Ryan Kitto, Yaya Dukuly, Ethan Alagich, Ryan White, Jonny Yull, Juan Muniz, Luka Jovanovic
Wellington Phoenix (4-1-4-1) : Joshua Oluwayemi, Matt Sheridan, Manjrekar James, Bill Tuiloma, Isaac Hughes, Paulo Retre, Corban Piper, Ramy Najjarine, Kazuki Nagasawa, Carlo Armiento, Eze Ifeanyi
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