Our Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Prediction: 1-1
Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara in the Mexico Liga MX is scheduled for an 23:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday February 28, 2026. Our forecast favors a 1-1 draw, with both sides expected to find the net, making BTTS a highly probable scenario.
This forecast is grounded in a thorough analysis of recent form, team statistics and historical matchups — all explored in detail below to support your betting decisions.
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Recent Form Insights
Toluca's Last Match – Necaxa vs Toluca
Toluca will want to continue their winning form after a 3-0 Mexico Liga MX victory over Necaxa, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Toluca controlled 55% of possession and managed 12 shots on goal, with 6 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Necaxa | 45% | 11 (6) | 0.47 | 41 |
 Toluca | 55% | 12 (6) | 2.11 | 41 |
Chivas Guadalajara's Last Match – Cruz Azul vs Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara will be eager to respond after suffering a 1-2 Mexico Liga MX defeat at the hands of Cruz Azul on February 22. In that match, Chivas Guadalajara had 61% possession and 11 attempts at goal, with 3 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cruz Azul | 39% | 7 (3) | 0.66 | 28 |
 Chivas Guadalajara | 61% | 11 (3) | 1.18 | 43 |
Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Stats
Key Stats
| Toluca | Chivas Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Attacking Strength | 1.31 |
| 0.66 | Defence Strength | 0.67 |
| 2.1 | Points Per Game | 2.2 |
| 6/10 | WIN | 7/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 1/10 |
| 5/10 | Clean Sheets | 5/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 4/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.4 | Average Scored | 1.8 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Toluca are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, while Chivas Guadalajara average 1.8 scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
Toluca 14-6
Chivas Guadalajara 18-9
What are the odds for this match?
Toluca to win: @2
Draw: @3.4
Chivas Guadalajara to win: @3.8
Over 2.5 Goals: @1.825
Lineups
Toluca (4-3-3) : Luis Garcia, Diego Zaragoza, Federico Pereira, Bruno Mendez, Jesus Gallardo, Jorge Diaz, Franco Romero, Santiago Simon, Ricardo Angulo, Paulinho, Marcel Ruiz
Chivas Guadalajara (3-4-2-1) : Raul Rangel, Daniel Aguirre, Diego Campillo Del Campo, Jose Castillo, Richard Ledezma, Luis Romo, Ruben Gonzalez, Bryan Gonzalez, Roberto Alvarado, Efrain Alvarez, Armando Gonzalez