Our Derby vs Southampton Prediction: 1-1
Derby vs Southampton in the England Championship is scheduled for an 14:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday October 4, 2025. A 1-1 draw is our predicted outcome, with both teams expected to score, making BTTS a solid betting option.
This Derby vs Southampton prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Derby's Last Match – Derby vs Charlton
Derby will be determined to find a winning touch after a 1-1 England Championship draw against Charlton on September 30. In that match, Derby recorded 58% possession, attempting 8 shots on goal, with 3 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derby | 58% | 8 (3) | 1.83 | 58 |
 Charlton | 42% | 6 (3) | 0.58 | 35 |
Southampton's Last Match – Sheff Utd vs Southampton
Southampton will want to continue their winning form after a 2-1 England Championship victory over Sheff Utd, knowing this is a must-win match for their campaign. In that match, Southampton controlled 52% of possession and managed 8 shots on goal, with 4 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sheff Utd | 48% | 6 (4) | 0.84 | 48 |
 Southampton | 52% | 8 (4) | 1.6 | 30 |
Derby vs Southampton Stats
Key Stats
| Derby | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Attacking Strength | 0.9 |
| 0.9 | Defence Strength | 1.13 |
| 0.8 | Points Per Game | 1.3 |
| 1/10 | WIN | 3/10 |
| 5/10 | DRAW | 4/10 |
| 1/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 8/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 4/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.2 | Average Scored | 1.3 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Derby are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match, while Southampton average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
Derby 12-17
Southampton 13-12
What are the odds for this match?
Derby to win: @3.5
Draw: @3.3
Southampton to win: @2.1
Over 2.5 Goals: @2.05
Lineups
Derby (4-2-3-1) : Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, Max Johnston, Dion Sanderson, Matt Clarke, Craig Forsyth, Andreas Weimann, Lewis Travis, Patrick Agyemang, Bobby Clark, David Ozoh, Carlton Morris
Southampton (4-2-3-1) : Alex McCarthy, Ronnie Edwards, Nathan Wood, Joshua Quarshie, Ryan Manning, Caspar Jander, Shea Charles, Ryan Fraser, Leo Scienza, Adam Armstrong, Ross Stewart
Coventry 
Middlesbrough 
Millwall 
Ipswich 
Hull 
Wrexham 
Southampton 
Derby 
Watford 
Birmingham 
Swansea 
Bristol City 
Sheff Utd 
Preston 
Norwich 
Stoke 
Charlton 
QPR 
Portsmouth 
Blackburn 
Leicester 
Oxford Utd 
West Brom 
Sheff Wed