Our Real Madrid vs Marseille Prediction: 3-1
Real Madrid vs Marseille in the UEFA Champions League is scheduled for an 19:00 GMT kick-off on Tuesday September 16, 2025. We’re backing a 3-1 home win, but for those looking at alternative bets, over 2.5 goals is worth considering based on both teams' attacking stats.
This Real Madrid vs Marseille prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
→ View Today's Exact Score Tips
Recent Form Insights
Real Madrid's Last Match – Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid will hope to extend their good run following a 2-1 Spain La Liga win against Real Sociedad on September 13. In that match, Real Madrid had 36% possession and 14 attempts at goal, with 6 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 64% | 16 (4) | 2.66 | 70 |
 Real Madrid | 36% | 14 (6) | 1.97 | 34 |
Marseille's Last Match – Marseille vs Lorient
Marseille must win to build on their momentum after securing a hard-fought 4-0 France Ligue 1 victory over Lorient in their last outing. In that match, Marseille recorded 72% possession, attempting 9 shots on goal, with 7 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marseille | 72% | 9 (7) | 2.12 | 93 |
 Lorient | 28% | 2 (2) | 0.13 | 13 |
Real Madrid vs Marseille Stats
Key Stats
| Real Madrid | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Attacking Strength | 0.36 |
| 1.17 | Defence Strength | 1.02 |
| 2.7 | Points Per Game | 1.8 |
| 9/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 0/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 5/10 | Clean Sheets | 3/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 8/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 4/10 |
| 2.2 | Average Scored | 2.2 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Real Madrid are averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match, while Marseille average 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
Real Madrid 22-9
Marseille 22-8
What are the odds for this match?
Real Madrid to win: @1.333
Draw: @5.5
Marseille to win: @8
Lineups
Real Madrid (4-3-3) : Thibaut Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eder Militao, Dean Huijsen, Alvaro Carreras, Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Guler, Franco Mastantuono, Kylian Mbappe, Rodrygo
Marseille (4-2-3-1) : Geronimo Rulli, Benjamin Pavard, Facundo Medina, Leonardo Balerdi, Emerson, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Mason Greenwood, Matt O'Riley, Tim Weah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang