Our Marseille vs Ajax Prediction: 1-3
Marseille vs Ajax in the UEFA Champions League is scheduled for an 19:00 GMT kick-off on Tuesday September 30, 2025. We anticipate a 1-3 win for the visitors, but with both teams frequently finding the net, a bet on over 2.5 goals is also worth considering.
This Marseille vs Ajax prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Marseille's Last Match – Strasbourg vs Marseille
Marseille will seek to keep their streak alive after a 2-1 France Ligue 1 victory over Strasbourg on September 26. In that match, Marseille had 60% possession and 11 attempts at goal, with 8 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strasbourg | 40% | 9 (1) | 0.91 | 25 |
 Marseille | 60% | 11 (8) | 1.62 | 63 |
Ajax's Last Match – Ajax vs NAC
Ajax will aim to maintain their momentum following a 2-1 Netherlands Eredivisie triumph against NAC on September 27. In that match, Ajax controlled 51% of possession and managed 9 shots on goal, with 6 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ajax | 51% | 9 (6) | 1.59 | 29 |
 NAC | 49% | 11 (10) | 1.57 | 43 |
Marseille vs Ajax Stats
Key Stats
| Marseille | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.64 | Attacking Strength | 1.63 |
| 1.23 | Defence Strength | 0.87 |
| 1.7 | Points Per Game | 1.6 |
| 5/10 | WIN | 4/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 4/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 2/10 |
| 6/10 | BTTS | 6/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.8 | Average Scored | 1.6 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Marseille are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, while Ajax average 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Marseille 18-10
Ajax 16-14
What are the odds for this match?
Marseille to win: @1.48
Draw: @4.5
Ajax to win: @6
Lineups
Marseille (4-3-3) : Geronimo Rulli, Facundo Medina, Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, Emerson, Bilal Nadir, Matt O'Riley, Arthur Vermeeren, Mason Greenwood, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Igor Paixao
Ajax (4-4-2) : Vitezslav Jaros, Lucas Rosa, Kou Itakura, Youri Baas, Owen Wijndal, Youri Regeer, Davy Klaassen, Oscar Gloukh, Kenneth Taylor, Steven Berghuis, Mika Godts