Our Marseille vs Lyon Prediction: 2-1
Marseille vs Lyon in the France Ligue 1 is scheduled for an 19:45 GMT kick-off on Sunday March 1, 2026. A 2-1 win for the home side is our expected outcome, though BTTS looks promising given both teams’ recent scoring records.
This Marseille vs Lyon prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Marseille's Last Match – Brest vs Marseille
Marseille will be looking to bounce back after a 0-2 France Ligue 1 defeat against Brest on February 20. In that match, Marseille recorded 68% possession, attempting 11 shots on goal, with 3 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brest | 32% | 10 (6) | 1.13 | 20 |
 Marseille | 68% | 11 (3) | 1.42 | 81 |
Lyon's Last Match – Strasbourg vs Lyon
Lyon will hope to recover from their recent 1-3 France Ligue 1 setback against Strasbourg on February 22. In that match, Lyon controlled 50% of possession and managed 3 shots on goal, with 2 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strasbourg | 50% | 12 (7) | 2.07 | 38 |
 Lyon | 50% | 3 (2) | 0.27 | 17 |
Marseille vs Lyon Stats
Key Stats
| Marseille | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.49 | Attacking Strength | 1.29 |
| 0.89 | Defence Strength | 0.81 |
| 1.4 | Points Per Game | 2.7 |
| 4/10 | WIN | 9/10 |
| 2/10 | DRAW | 0/10 |
| 2/10 | Clean Sheets | 5/10 |
| 4/10 | BTTS | 5/10 |
| 9/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/10 |
| 2.4 | Average Scored | 2.1 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Marseille are averaging 2.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match, while Lyon average 2.1 scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
Marseille 24-20
Lyon 21-9
What are the odds for this match?
Marseille to win: @1.95
Draw: @3.6
Lyon to win: @3.8
Lineups
Marseille (4-1-4-1) : Geronimo Rulli, Tim Weah, Leonardo Balerdi, Nayef Aguerd, Emerson, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Mason Greenwood, Quinten Timber, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Hamed Junior Traore, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Lyon (4-1-2-3) : Dominik Greif, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Clinton Mata, Moussa Niakhate, Nicolas Tagliafico, Tyler Morton, Tanner Tessmann, Corentin Tolisso, Endrick, Roman Yaremchuk, Noah Teye Nartey