Our Derby vs Middlesbrough Prediction: 1-1
Derby vs Middlesbrough in the England Championship is scheduled for an 15:00 GMT kick-off on Thursday January 1, 2026. A 1-1 draw seems the most likely outcome, and with both teams showing attacking intent, BTTS is a solid alternative bet.
This Derby vs Middlesbrough prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Derby's Last Match – Leicester vs Derby
Derby will hope to recover from their recent 1-2 England Championship setback against Leicester on December 29. In that match, Derby had 55% possession and 6 attempts at goal, with 2 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 45% | 7 (2) | 0.87 | 44 |
 Derby | 55% | 6 (2) | 0.43 | 38 |
Middlesbrough's Last Match – Middlesbrough vs Hull
Middlesbrough will be looking to bounce back after a 0-1 England Championship defeat against Hull on December 29. In that match, Middlesbrough recorded 70% possession, attempting 9 shots on goal, with 5 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Middlesbrough | 70% | 9 (5) | 1.16 | 97 |
 Hull | 30% | 3 (1) | 0.28 | 21 |
Derby vs Middlesbrough Stats
Key Stats
| Derby | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.78 | Attacking Strength | 1.01 |
| 1.01 | Defence Strength | 0.93 |
| 1.2 | Points Per Game | 1.7 |
| 3/10 | WIN | 5/10 |
| 3/10 | DRAW | 2/10 |
| 1/10 | Clean Sheets | 1/10 |
| 9/10 | BTTS | 7/10 |
| 7/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 6/10 |
| 1.5 | Average Scored | 1.6 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Derby are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match, while Middlesbrough average 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded per game.
Derby 15-15
Middlesbrough 16-13
What are the odds for this match?
Derby to win: @3
Draw: @3.25
Middlesbrough to win: @2.375
Lineups
Derby (3-4-1-2) : Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, Sondre Klingen Langas, Dion Sanderson, Matt Clarke, Joe Ward, Liam Thompson, Ebou Adams, Callum Elder, Bobby Clark, Rhian Brewster, Patrick Agyemang
Middlesbrough (4-2-2-2) : Sol Brynn, Callum Brittain, Luke Ayling, Matt Targett, Alex Bangura, Aidan Morris, Delano Burgzorg, Morgan Whittaker, Hayden Hackney, Mamadou Kaly Sene, Tommy Conway