Our Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction: 2-1
Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany Bundesliga I is scheduled for an 19:30 GMT kick-off on Wednesday March 4, 2026. A 2-1 win for the home side is our expected outcome, though BTTS looks promising given both teams’ recent scoring records.
This Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction is backed by a deep dive into both teams' recent performances, key stats and head-to-head history — all of which you'll find detailed below to help you make an informed betting decision.
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Recent Form Insights
Hamburg's Last Match – Hamburg vs RB Leipzig
Hamburg must win as they aim to bounce back from a disappointing 1-2 Germany Bundesliga I defeat against RB Leipzig on March 1. In that match, Hamburg saw 42% of the ball and created 7 goal attempts, with 3 on target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hamburg | 42% | 7 (3) | 0.54 | 30 |
 RB Leipzig | 58% | 15 (5) | 2.7 | 54 |
Bayer Leverkusen's Last Match – Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen will look to build on their last result following a 1-1 Germany Bundesliga I stalemate against Mainz on February 28. In that match, Bayer Leverkusen controlled 66% of possession and managed 3 shots on goal, with 5 hitting the target.
| Team | Possession | Shots (on target) | xG | Dangerous Attacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bayer Leverkusen | 66% | 3 (5) | 1.07 | 73 |
 Mainz | 34% | 4 (4) | 0.73 | 44 |
Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Stats
Key Stats
| Hamburg | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | Attacking Strength | 1.09 |
| 0.81 | Defence Strength | 0.89 |
| 1.1 | Points Per Game | 2.1 |
| 2/10 | WIN | 6/10 |
| 5/10 | DRAW | 3/10 |
| 3/10 | Clean Sheets | 6/10 |
| 7/10 | BTTS | 3/10 |
| 5/10 | Over 2.5 Goals | 4/10 |
| 1.2 | Average Scored | 1.8 |
Goals Scored vs Goals Conceded
Hamburg are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Bayer Leverkusen average 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded per game.
Hamburg 12-14
Bayer Leverkusen 18-4
What are the odds for this match?
Hamburg to win: @3.5
Draw: @3.5
Bayer Leverkusen to win: @2.05
Lineups
Hamburg (3-4-3) : Daniel Fernandes, Warmed Omari, Luka Vuskovic, Daniel Elfadli, Bakery Jatta, Fabio Vieira, Nicolai Remberg, Giorgi Gocholeishvili, Rayan Philippe, Damion Downs, Ransford Konigsdorffer
Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1) : Janis Blaswich, Jarell Quansah, Robert Andrich, Edmond Tapsoba, Montrell Culbreath, Aleix Garcia, Exequiel Palacios, Alex Grimaldo, Ibrahim Maza, Martin Terrier, Christian Michel Kofane
Bayern Munich 
Borussia Dortmund 
TSG Hoffenheim 
VfB Stuttgart 
RB Leipzig 
Bayer Leverkusen 
Eintracht Frankfurt 
SC Freiburg 
Augsburg 
Hamburg 
Union Berlin 
Borussia M'gladbach 
Werder Bremen 
Cologne 
Mainz 
St Pauli 
Wolfsburg 
Heidenheim